Statistics Blog
@statisticsblog
Probability & Statistics with a focus on Monte Carlo simulations & epistemology: http://statsblog.com, podcast http://TheFilter.org. #Stats #RStats #Statistics #Probability
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Ockham’s razor is aspirational metaphysics, as in, “Wouldn’t it be nice if all of reality could be modeled with tidy, tractable equations?”
Roundup of links to my recent writings and podcast episodes related to probability, stats, and epistemology: statisticsblog.com/2022/12/21/bor…
Not sure yet what to make of this anaylsis... probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vac…
Overnight, IMDB fortified Fauci's overall rating from 1.6 to 5.8 (unfortunately they forgot to fortify the components of the new score).
A podcast episode about Pascal's Wager and it's implications for today: mattasher.com/2021/10/04/ep-…
This is looking sadly more and more accurate as time goes by. Here's everyone's model island for excellent response 15 months on, in data and liberty: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
To be as clear as possible: The fight against #Corona is like a 15-round prize fight. Lockdowns are socially extreme, costly, and hard to enforce. It's like recommending your boxer throw 50 punches in round 1. They may be up at the end of that round, but what happens after that?
The average person's mechanism for determining a truth claim is simply whether it gives them a positive emotional response.
A gentle reminder that all scientific progress rests on recognizing that things that work... work. This may seem obvious or tautological, but I keep seeing people talk about supposedly useful interventions in the absence of real-world correlations. No correlation → no causation
Estimating the number of flies in an apartment saml98.github.io/jekyll/update/…
All science begins with anecdote. All science begins with correlation.
For the past year, Science has meant bad predictions by zealots and partisans, used to justify extreme measures which needlessly destroyed millions of lives, while benefiting the already rich and powerful. Also, you are not allowed to question The Science. #truth #science
The good thing about Science is that it’s true, whether or not you believe in it.
What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years? @StatModeling fermatslibrary.com/s/what-are-the…
Everybody should know about Berkson’s paradox. 👉 When two positive traits are (spuriously) negatively correlated, in a population *selected on these traits*. Examples: 1/ “Handsome men are jerks.” via @anecdatally
Kea parrots perform domain-general statistical inference nature.com/articles/s4146…
Three-dimensional model of electricity consumption in Manchester collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co8418… #dataviz
A reminder that while correlation doesn't prove causation, you can't prove causation *without* correlation. Or, even worse, with inverse correlation.
1/ Let’s take a journey to where “science” got us in 2020. Santa Clara County (CA) was the first in the US to lockdown. They "followed the science" with perhaps the longest lockdown in the world. Gyms never opened. Indoor dining *never* opened. How did that work out?
Past thefilter.org guest Andrew Gelman and @avehtari on the most important statistical ideas of the past year: stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/resear…
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