Julius Probst, PhD 🌐
@JuliusProbst
European labor economist @appcast_io PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.
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The business cycle is (mostly) driven by fluctuations in NGDP. Nominal income is nothing more than velocity adjusted money (M*V). It’s the Central Bank’s job to react to changes in M and V and therefore keep NGDP growing on a stable path. This is the most neutral monetary policy
This graph may or may not say a lot about the world over the last decade.
100%!!!!’
Check out this first of a four-part series on @recruitonomics covering the impact of the Trump administration's immigration policies on the labor market. @JuliusProbst estimates an annual decline in the U.S. labor force between 640k to 960k.
The UK labor market stumbled again in May—what does that mean for employers and job seekers? The latest blog from #Recruitonomics author, @JuliusProbst, breaks it down. 👉 Read the full analysis: hubs.li/Q03sbCSW0
🇩🇪 Can defense spending revive #Germany’s economy? With a new government in charge, the path forward is set—but will it work? Read the latest blog from #Recruitonomics author, @JuliusProbst, to explore the impact and implications. 👉 hubs.li/Q03bXwWP0
I think people all need to t alize that the Trump plan for "peace" in Ukraine was always to bully Ukraine into surrendering.
Ukrainians, many of them hardened by three years of war, rallied behind Zelensky in defiance but worried about the future of US backing for Kyiv's war effort. jpost.com/international/…
Yep, Musk is a genius
BREAKING: US intelligence indicates that Russia and China are attempting to recruit federal employees fired by the Trump administration, per CNN
Omfg
🔴 Rachel Reeves eyes cuts to Britain’s £20bn mini-nuclear project telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…
Have you said thank you once, America ?
Benjamin Franklin wearing a coonskin cap while being received by the French court. "Proper" attire at the time would have been a powdered wig, but Franklin enjoyed playing up his "rustic" American identity. On these trips, he asked for military support for newly independent US.
I think people need to remember that Vance is from the actively pro-Russia part of the rightist movement, along with Tucker Carlson and that whole crowd. They see Russia as ground zero in the global right-wing reactionary cause and support it accordingly.
100% choreographed ambush, right down to the hostile question about the suit
One reason Reagan will always be a greater American President than Trump? When he saw evil threats to America, he called them out on it, to their face. And he won. Trump today said he is too scared to do that to Putin. And he keeps losing. MAGA, except for this, I guess.
Reagan: Tear down this wall JFK: Ask not what your country can do for you… Trump/Vance: HE DIDN’T SAY THANK YOU !!
Thank you @POTUS for standing up for America in a way that no President has ever had the courage to do before. Thank you for putting America First. America is with you!
Ronald Reagan would have armed Ukraine to the hilt.
Imagine thinking that it makes him look good
I know one thing. Zelenskyy would’ve received a hero’s welcome from these guys, and sent home with enough ammo to go all the way to Moscow.
There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a victim: Ukraine. We were right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago—and to keep doing so. By “we,” I mean the Americans, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Japanese, and many others. Thank you to…
Germany will have one of the lowest public investment ratios of all EU countries in 2025 (EU Commission forecast). The idea of just doing additional defence spending around the debt brake without reforming it - while Germany's infrastructure and economy crumble - falls short.
If you're Germany, Poland, Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan right now, you should probably assume the U.S. is an unreliable ally and try to get your own nuclear deterrent.
👇
Wages have flatlined in the UK over the last fifteen years. This long period of stagnation is unprecedented in living memory, & marks a decisive & unwelcome break from the UK's postwar economic trajectory. This plot explains so much about the state of UK politics today.
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