S&P 500 Signals
@SPYSTSignals
I build and share quantitative models that *attempt* to predict future S&P 500 returns. All models are wrong, but some are useful.
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Make Santa Monica great again!
Yes, we can revive Santa Monica. By removing the policy makers who got us here in the first place.
I think this worry is very much real and will drive the next crisis as the fed will be unable to reverse it. It will be a mess.
AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has said.
25:1 😳 taking the money and running
To those in the back of the class, this is the PE equivalent of cashing out as fast as you can because there is literally no exit for LPs so stripmine what you can while the window is open. Funny, the listed guys are doing it too. @TimmerFidelity reminds us that insider…
The results are in and once again folks lean bullish. That makes it six straight weeks of up votes. Some have been right, some wrong, but overall SPX down over six weeks. Thanks for voting and Happy TG everyone!
BREAKING: Trump administration considers approving sales of Nvidia's advanced AI chips to China
Maybe I should post here more often (I post/chat daily on Substack)
Familiar with those 08 dates. Pretty incredible to go from most stocks up to most stocks down.
Random: How many times has $SPY gapped up 1.5% or more and then finished the day down by more than -1%? 4/8/2025 8/25/2015 10/14/2008 10/9/2008 10/7/2008 That's it, that's the list. Something to watch into the close (we gapped up 1.55% today).
Your occasional reminder that “”BTC yield” is not a thing.
Strategy has acquired 8,178 BTC for ~$835.6 million at ~$102,171 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 27.8% YTD 2025. As of 11/16/2025, we hodl 649,870 $BTC acquired for ~$48.37 billion at ~$74,433 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRD $STRE $STRF $STRK strategy.com/press/strategy…
Big gov: Congrats! You’re getting a $2000 dividend! People: Great! When can I expect the check? Big gov: Well it’s basically the tax decrease we are giving you, we’re just reminding you that it’s like a $2000 dividend, in theory.
Bessent: “The $2,000 divided could come in lots of forms. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing” LOL x.com/Ronxyz00/statu…
BREAKING: President Trump announces American citizens will receive a $2,000 “tariff dividend.”
Republicans have just rejected the Democrats offer to end the shutdown, per CBS
Senate Democrats to lay out proposal to end shutdown, proposing to extend ACA subsidies for one year.
Anytime flights start getting messed w government reopens shortly thereafter, historically at least.
FED'S MIRAN: I EXPECT WE WILL CUT IN DECEMBER MIRAN: I WANT TO GET TO NEUTRAL IN 50 BASIS-POINT INCREMENTS; A LOT OF MY COLLEAGUES WANT 25 BPS INCREMENTS
It seems folks are getting tired of team Trump’s economic gaslighting. I think it’s peaked, probably will see more initiatives around supporting lower/middle class soon.
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