David Roodman
@davidroodman
Senior advisor @open_phil. Formerly @GiveWell, @CGDev.
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🚨 @I4Replication released my experiment with a new academic-literary form, a “replication opinion.” I made myself judge in a debate and wrote an opinion that is more credible than either party could muster. Piece: econstor.eu/handle/10419/3… Post: davidroodman.com/blog/2025/05/0… 🧵 follows
davidroodman.com
Appeal to Me: First Trial of a “Replication Opinion” - David Roodman
While I discuss my employer's work in this post, all opinions are my own. My employer, Open Philanthropy, strives to make grants in light of evidence. Of course, many uncertainties in our decision-...
We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study. New results, in 3 figures: 🧵 1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no sig differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
David Roodman writes: consumers of economic research are more truth-seeking than the producers. Here is Roodman's recap of his re-analysis of a set of papers on temperature and judge decision-making. The comment process is not working that well! Gory details in 🧵 1/
Who cares when a research claim is found to be in error? Peer-reviewed journals do their best to deflect and dilute legitimate criticism. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/02/who…
Replication doesn't make you popular, which is one reason it is undersupplied and sorely needed. I'm proud @open_phil is supporting @I4Replication. How the Institute for Replication is making social science more robust and reliable | Open Philanthropy openphilanthropy.org/research/how-t…
Good illustration of how much the Texas grid has changed in just 6 years. yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke via @grid_status
Springer Nature book on machine learning is full of made-up citations. retractionwatch.com/2025/06/30/spr…
"How Peer Review Became Science’s Most Dangerous Illusion." medium.com/the-quantastic…
My critical replication of a study of childhood vaccination and adult wages in India is final & effectively published Thread: x.com/davidroodman/s… Free pub: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/73…
My new, short write-up about a flaw in a recent study finding that India’s universal vaccination program boosted future wages of babies who got the shots: arxiv.org/abs/2401.11100 1/
Whistleblower Raphaël Lévy on the systemic discouragement for calling out scientific fraud: "if a student or a more junior researcher had faced such a backlash it is unlikely that they would have been able to stand up to it." chemistryworld.com/news/how-i-ble…
Good title, good conclusion
👀Using an autonomous agent based on o3-mini and GPT-4.1, a team from Harvard, MIT & other institutions reproduced and updated an entire issue of Cochrane Reviews in two days… saving 12 person-years of work! The AI reviews captured more papers & were more accurate than humans.
"Many global health problems are thorny and difficult. Lead, unusually, is not one of those. We already know how to reduce lead exposure. Rich countries have already done it." Great new @WorksInProgMag piece by @C_Don7 @notanastronomer and James Hu
New podcast alert! Hard Drugs - a collaboration between @JacobTref at Open Phil and @salonium at @WorksInProgMag. Listen here, or wherever you get your podcasts: open.spotify.com/show/7CgKi9lO8…
LAUNCH DAY 🚀 Today I’m launching a new podcast, Hard Drugs, with Jacob Trefethen (@JacobTref) Our first episode is about lenacapavir — a new HIV drug that blocks infections with an efficacy rate of nearly 100%, and which could completely change the fight against HIV worldwide.…
A million lives at risk? @charlesjkenny and I estimate the possible toll from the aid cuts in the White House's FY26 budget request. There's huge uncertainty here, of diverse kinds, so we explore 3 broad ways we could be wrong and by how much. cgdev.org/blog/million-l…
Fantastic work. When I was at GiveWell, we had an "I was wrong" T-shirt you could wear when found to be wrong. It made it fun to admit error and was both a signal of and contributor to a culture of truth-seeking.
Each year, GiveWell makes hundreds of millions of dollars in grants aimed at saving and improving lives globally. My team's job is to look for ways we could be wrong and make our research better. Here's what we've been up to and what's next 🧵
We wanted to verify the evidence behind >$1 billion in grants we've made to our top charities — so we asked @I4Replication to see if they could get the data to replicate the underlying RCTs. It didn't go great... 🧵
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