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Would the federal funds rate be lower, today, if Trump didn't do his tariff policies?
For the #EGEssaySeries, @CenterOnBudget's @gbenga_ajilore discusses why policymakers should build a place-based strategy to spur economic growth in rural communities and offers ways to "combat the disconnection rural areas have from the national economy." equitablegrowth.org/a-place-based-…
Anything other than an orderly shutdown is 100% the Republican's fault. Vought moving to remake government is entirely his own doing and he and Trump own that. A government shutdown is NOT the movie "The Purge" where laws are suspended
🚨NEWS: @russvought to huddle with HOUSE REPUBLICANS at 1 p.m. VOUGHT is expected to talk about layoffs, departmental cuts etc. The administration has signaled that they will use this shutdown to reshape government, benefits, etc. w @LauraEWeiss16
Two of the three are immigrants to America, which isn't surprising -- nearly 40 percent of American Nobel laureates have been immigrants.
BREAKING NEWS The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2025 #NobelPrize in Physics to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit.”
Love this @springsteen live version of Atlantic City. open.spotify.com/track/27DCji1i…
Mike Johnson's CR doesn't have that language, because it was written prior to the government shutting down (so ofc it wouldn't have startup language). But what that means is that we can't use that CR to reopen the government. The House Republican CR as written is insufficient.
That's fine. We always have normal startup language when we reopen the government - and we did in 2019 when we reopened the government even though this entitlement existed. We do that every time, and we'll do that this time when we reopen the government.
But this 2019 law is an "appropriated entitlement." It created the entitlement, but it didn't create the $$ to carry it out. So furloughed employees can get money from the US Court of Claims if need be, but there needs to be additional law enacted to get paid w/out having to sue.
This means that if they don't receive backpay, they can sue, and they will win, and they will get their backpay. Furloughed employees are guaranteed backpay, and anything to the contrary is wrong, period full stop.
Are furloughed federal employees entitled to backpay? The short answer is yes furloughed employees are entitled to backpay, but the mechanism a little complicated. And, importantly, it means the House GOP CR is insufficient for reopening the govt & needs to be amended. Thread:
The conventional wisdom is that furloughed federal workers get backpay when the shutdown ends But a draft White House memo says that’s not the case as the Trump admin considers ratcheting up the pressure on Senate Dems to end the shutdown News here 👇 axios.com/2025/10/07/tru…
Was just thinking about this. Prior shutdowns were THE national story while they unfolded. This has been background noise.
Theory: Trump's governance is so hardwired to generate crisis & chaos and multiple media stories at once (typically a problem for Dems struggling to break through the noise) that it's actually making it hard for the GOP to effectively focus attention and jam Dems on the shutdown.
As it's priced in $ also dollar weakness since inauguration is playing a roll too...
Gold's parabolic move toward $4,000 is sending a warning signal to the traditional financial system: developed-market nations are losing clout as being good stewards of capital.
Extremely good point from @JosephPolitano here: The AI boom is happening in part because Trump decided to exempt computers and chips from tariffs, which really spotlights the lunacy of the rest of his trade policy. substack.com/home/post/p-16…
New update: Excited to report that I’ll be joining @RollCall on Monday to cover budget and appropriations! Big thanks to @thehill after a wild seven years. Stoked to continue following the money in this next adventure.
Given that Vought’s rationale is that he’s stopping DEI programs, I don’t see a suggestion that he’d release the money when the shutdown ends.
✅NY (home of top Senate Dem) ✅IL (home of No. 2 Senate Dem) ❓MN (home of No. 3 Senate Dem)
Oh good. More legal gambling
The U.S. crypto market will start looking a lot more like offshore crypto markets --CME will offer around-the clock crypto futures trading --Cboe said it will launch perpetual futures, super-leveraged crypto trader --Coinbase launched 10x perps recently
DHS: Where was this lead pencil made? ME: State of Washington, mines in South America, Malaya, and other places I don't even know about, by thousands of people who don't speak the same language, practice different religions, and might hate each other if they ever met DHS: denied
When pointing out yesterday that Russ Vought was intentionally damaging states and localities with big elections coming up (New Jersey, Virginia, NYC), I stupidly forgot that one of the most consequential votes is happening in California. Vought did not overlook California
NEW: The Trump administration’s plans to cancel billions of dollars for energy projects following the US government shutdown includes an $600 million initiative to upgrade electric transmission lines in California.
Vought already targeting the home state of the Senate and House Democratic leaders.
Roughly $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects have been put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing based on unconstitutional DEI principles. More info to come soon from @USDOT.
Happy Fiscal New Year to everyone except people who say budget when they mean appropriations.
Important to note "a shutdown provides no new legal authority to engage in mass layoffs, nor does it provide any sound management or policy reason to do so." The Trump Administration is going to try to link mass firings to the shutdown, but it's a complete red herring.
🚨NEWS: @russvought to huddle with HOUSE REPUBLICANS at 1 p.m. VOUGHT is expected to talk about layoffs, departmental cuts etc. The administration has signaled that they will use this shutdown to reshape government, benefits, etc. w @LauraEWeiss16
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